Flight fright

Friday 13th March 2020

I’m indebted to Douglas McWilliams who’s a regular on my Business Breakfast show on JazzFM about the Coronavirus impact on the travel industry. Not just that people simply won’t travel and  not just  that Trump’s travel ban  from  Schengen areas will hurt travel companies – but the sheer size of the travel business internationally.

Travel and tourism  comprises about 10% of world GDP and a similar proportion of world employment. McWilliam’s organisation, the CEBR – which did a similar and as it turns out accurate prediction after 9/11, estimates a 50% contraction of the business in the second quarter of the year – with no real return to normality until this time next year.

And that’s just the most immediate sector effect of this menacing unknown. Will those who don’t travel spend elsewhere – and when will the first non payment of bills start ? That will be another, probably frightening, indicator.

 https://cebr.com/reports/the-us-travel-ban-will-further-add-to-the-impact-of-coronavirus-on-the-international-travel-industry-which-is-likely-to-be-about-four-times-as-large-as-that-of-september-11/

Michael

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