Blog
It’s essential – the throng’s the thing
Tuesday 16th June 2020
Yesterday, Magic Monday, was when ‘non-essential’ shopping was allowed to restart. Shopping for ‘non- essentials’ caused some queues . But there was no real return to the ‘retail therapy’ days of nipping into a few stores, trying a few things on and then having a coffee and a gossip and then maybe wandering back, trying the same or similar things on again and the buying them or maybe not. Within the shopping bags is also this dull number – shops pay £17.5 billion per year in tax , 9% of the UK total, of the four largest takes , which…
Are we Covid covered ?
Wednesday 22nd April 2020
Whenever it’s all over, it won’t be. Never mind the prospect of a V or W or “Nike Whoosh” recession, or a “Great Depression 2” . As businesses go bust, people lose jobs and incomes, debt defaults surge, one of the major sectors of the financial industry will face some serious legal action, which will grind on for years. The financial watchdog has ordered that during the current crisis, insurance companies pay out claims to firms or explain themselves. But new research suggests that insurance cover is being reduced because of the Coronavirus pandemic,particularly over business interruption claims. Bruce…
I warned you I’d forecast a scenario
Wednesday 15th April 2020
Two million on the dole and the economy to shrink by 35% .That stark warning from the Office for Budget Responsibility gave tasty headlines and had the official stamp of authority as the Chancellor passed on the ‘serious implications’ message . One report had this: the Chancellor “stressed that the forecast was only one possible scenario’. Forecast, warning, scenario – which ? Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Gordon, told me on The Business Breakfast on JazzFM ( jazzfm.com) that ‘this is a scenario, not a forecast. It’s important to distinguish between the two – a forecast suggests you know…
Bad news is good
Wednesday 8th April 2020
How weird these days are. Now bad news is good news. First the economy – usually on a Wednesday at this time of the month, the financial commentariat would be sifting through the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve Bank, the USA’s central bank, which tends to give a good reading of the largest economy in the world. If that meeting had resulted in, for example an interest rate cut, the minutes might reveal the level of agreement or dissent, and that can often give a helpful idea of who the ‘hawks’ are and who are the…
Forecasting whether..or not
Thursday 19th March 2020
If you were to twist my arm I’d have to admit that I’m sceptical of the value of day to day commentary on the markets. The professionals have already done what they’ve done and the punters should really be letting the falling knife drop where it will. Even the analysts have got some of it completely wrong – and I’m not talking about the ‘teenage scribblers’ about whom Nigel Lawson was contemptuously dismissive when he was Chancellor. For example, quite grown up gurus were recommending a couple of airline stocks only a few weeks ago, and now investors are nursing heavy…